01EIA · Sep 28Diesel eased 14.7 cents this week but is 78 cents above a month ago
EIA's weekly U.S. on-highway diesel price (all types, all taxes) was $6.382/gal on Sep 28, released Sep 29. That is down $0.147 from $6.529 on Sep 21 and up $0.783 from $5.599 on Aug 31 (calculation from EIA weekly history). Regional prints: Gulf Coast (PADD 3) $5.955 and Midwest (PADD 2) $6.526; EIA's page does not publish a Texas-only diesel price, so Gulf Coast is the nearest Texas proxy.
Drivers per EIA's Sept Short-Term Energy Outlook (published Sep 9): falling global oil inventories keep Brent near $90/b in 2H26, and U.S. distillate inventories are forecast to drop below 100 million barrels in September and stay under the five-year low through much of 2027. Forecast: EIA expects retail diesel to average $5.07/gal in 2026 and $4.40/gal in 2027; the 2026 figure is a full-year average, not a near-term price. The next STEO is due Oct 6.
For your budget: any fuel surcharge indexed to weekly EIA diesel is running well above a month ago; watch the Oct 6 EIA print and STEO.
02New York Fed · Oct 2SOFR at 3.88% after Fed hike; your loan calculates to 6.38%
The New York Fed published SOFR at 3.88% for Oct 2, versus 3.90% on Sep 25 (-0.02 pt) and 3.65% on Sep 2 (+0.23 pt). SOFR was 3.62% on Sep 16 and 3.85% on Sep 17, the first print after the FOMC voted 12–0 on Sep 16 to raise the fed funds target range by 1/4 point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent.
Contract gap (calculation): SOFR+250 bps = 3.88% + 2.50% = 6.38% all-in on the Oct 2 print, versus 6.15% on the Sep 2 print (3.65% + 2.50%). This assumes your loan prices off overnight SOFR; if it uses Term SOFR or an average, your rate will differ. Direction: unfavorable as SOFR rises. The next FOMC meeting is Oct 27–28.
Against your contract: each quarterly reset now picks up about 23 bps more than early September; confirm your next reset date and which SOFR variant it fixes on.
03Old Dominion / Cass · Oct 5No public Chicago–Dallas LTL rate; Old Dominion's 4.9% GRI took effect Oct 5
No public source found publishes a Chicago–Dallas LTL rate in $/mile; LTL is priced per shipment by class, weight and discount, so your $2.40/mile contract (stated through June 2025, so expired about 15 months ago) cannot be compared with a market figure. No contract gap is calculated.
Drivers: Old Dominion's 4.9% general rate increase took effect Oct 5, 2026, as reported by Supply Chain Dive and summarized by CXTMS (Sep 24); fuel surcharge tables typically key to weekly EIA diesel, which is $6.382/gal (Sep 28), about 70% above a year ago per ExFreight (Sep 29). Cass shipments rose 2.1% y/y in August, as reported by ExFreight. No named-source LTL forecast was found.
Against your contract: with the $2.40/mile term lapsed, you are on current carrier tariffs plus fuel; confirm what replaced it and re-rate recent shipments.
04Steel Market Update · Oct 5Nucor HR coil spot edges up $10 to $1,230/ton
As reported by Steel Market Update (Oct 5), Nucor's consumer spot price for hot-rolled coil is $1,230/short ton this week, up $10 on the week and up $40 from $1,190 for the week of Sep 8 (+3.4%, calculation). Nucor has raised the price each week since: $1,200 (Sep 14), $1,210 (Sep 21), $1,220 (Sep 28). California Steel Industries' West Coast price is $1,290/st, also up $10.
Nucor's CSP is a mill list price, not an exchange settlement or an index such as CME HRC. Drivers beyond the mill's weekly increments were not sourced, and no named-source forecast was found. No contract term was given for steel, so no gap is shown.
For your budget: steady $10/week mill increases add up to about $40/ton per month; benchmark any steel quote against Nucor's weekly CSP.