Outdoor Spot Conditions Brief: Surfing · Ocean Beach & Linda Mar
Very strong El Niño odds make Feb 14–17 a watch-and-wait trip, not a booking
Your Feb 14–17 window is far beyond any point forecast, so both spots get a Maybe built on outlooks and today's readings, not day-by-day numbers. No preferences conflicted; I measured calls against shoulder-high swell, offshore or light wind, weekend mornings and thin crowds.
The 30-second version
CPC (Sep 10): over 90% chance of a very strong El Niño this winter; impacts likely but not guaranteed.
NWS Bay Area, Oct 5: SF/San Mateo surf 3–6 ft today, 4–7 ft Tuesday, light NW wind.
Linda Mar's south end has chronic fecal-bacteria problems; check posted signs and county results before paddling out.
01NDBC 46026 / NWS · Oct 5
Maybe: Ocean Beach, no real forecast for Feb 14–17 yet
Today's reading, NDBC 46026 (18 NM west of SF), 3:40 pm PDT Oct 5: 3.3 ft significant wave height, mainly 3.0 ft swell at about 13 s from the WSW, 61.0 °F water, NW wind about 13.6 kt. Official NWS San Francisco surf-zone forecast (issued 2:49 pm PDT Oct 5) for the SF and San Mateo coast: 3 to 6 ft the rest of today with NW wind 5 to 8 mph, then 4 to 7 ft Tuesday with NW wind 2 to 4 mph. Tuesday's tides: high 5.2 ft at 9:44 am PDT, low 2.1 ft at 3:02 pm. These are the current week, not your trip.
For Feb 14–17, 2027, the CPC outlook page lists a Jan–Mar 2027 seasonal outlook, but I could not read its map contents, so I give no swell or wind call. Calendar note: Feb 14 is a Sunday and Feb 15 a Monday, so your best weekend-morning shot is Sunday Feb 14 only; expect more people if the Monday is a holiday. I could not confirm any current GGNRA alert for Ocean Beach: the NPS alerts page loaded without its alert list. Check it and the NWS surf forecast three to five days before you go.
Maybe: no Feb forecast exists yet; recheck the NWS surf-zone forecast around Feb 10–11 and aim for Sunday dawn.
Maybe: Linda Mar, shape unknown, water quality is the real issue
Linda Mar (Pacifica State Beach) shares the same NWS surf-zone forecast area as Ocean Beach; I found no spot-specific official reading, so I give no separate Feb swell or wind call. It is usually the more sheltered, beginner-friendly option, but that is general local knowledge I did not verify in this run.
The bigger flag is water quality. CBS San Francisco (May 22, 2026) reported that the southern end of the beach along Highway 1 has tested high for fecal bacteria for decades, with volunteer testing of San Pedro Creek pointing mainly to a human source, and it cited Surfrider saying the beach exceeded the human safety threshold 72% of the time. The report urged visitors to heed warning signs at the south end and enjoy the beach north of the Taco Bell Cantina, noting the advice matters most in the rainy season, which includes February. I could not load the San Mateo County monitoring page, so I found no current posted advisory; if one is active when you go, the call becomes Skip.
Maybe: avoid the creek-mouth south end, check posted signs and county results the day before, and treat any active advisory as a Skip.
El Niño outlook is the one trip-wide signal worth watching
CPC's Sep 10, 2026 ENSO discussion has an El Niño Advisory in effect, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event this fall and winter, and a 75% chance of a historic event in Oct–Dec 2026. CPC says impacts consistent with El Niño are more likely but not guaranteed. The discussion does not mention surf, so I draw no swell or wind conclusion from it. CPC's next update is scheduled for Oct 8.
Watch: a very strong El Niño may bring a more active winter, so build flexibility into Feb 14–17 rather than locking in non-refundable plans.